IEA expects retired batteries to dominate recycling feedstock in mid-2030s

Battery manufacturing scrap will remain the main recycling feedstock until retired batteries take the lead in the mid-2030s, the IEA said in Global EV Outlook 2026. The agency identified a roughly 15-year lag between rising battery demand and comparable volumes reaching end of life.

Most batteries recently installed in electric vehicles and stationary storage remain in service and may operate into the mid-2030s or beyond. Recycling capacity already exceeds available feedstock, leaving some operators short of material.

China hosts more than 85% of global battery material recovery capacity, according to the IEA. Recyclers linked directly to battery manufacturers can secure relatively steady supplies of production scrap.

The report also highlights used vehicle trade: resale and repair can extend battery service, delaying recycling and changing the region where batteries eventually enter the recycling chain.